Market Commentary
Read our views on recent or upcoming market trends and events
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previous Commentaries and be added to our mailing list
for future publications.
Previous editions included:
January 2009: A Look Ahead to 2009
In 2008 the stock markets fell by percentages not seen since the 1930’s. The S&P 500
dropped 38.5%. According to the research firm, Morningstar, of the 4,934 US stock
mutual funds with more than $100 million in assets, none saw gains in 2008. As we look to
2009, we are cautiously optimistic that markets will improve, but there are major issues to
consider.
October 2008: What the World Needs Now
The financial markets are in crisis. Subprime mortgages, financial speculators, Wall
Street greed, Congress, fraud, and others have all contributed to the current crisis. The
presidential election campaign, politicians seeking advantage, and the 24-hour news
reporting makes one feel helpless and hopeless.
January 2008: Recession or Not?
Economic indicators may not have reached the level to satisfy the economists’ technical
definition of recession, but, a housing market collapse, a credit market in turmoil, higher
energy costs, higher unemployment and slowing economic growth seem like recession to
us. At the very least, we are in a “recession-like” economy.
November 2007: What Goes Down, Goes Up, Down and ?
The market’s strong growth of 2006 continued as 2007 opened. Then, the stock indices
fell suddenly and sharply in March; rose to record highs in early summer; fell sharply in
August; up, again in the early fall near the highs of summer, and, then came November.
Between October 31 and November 9, the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 887 points, or
6.4%, with the Nasdaq losing 8.0% in value.
January 2007: Strong Finish for Stock Markets in 2006
Last summer, the price of crude oil reached $75 a barrel and the stock markets fell to their
lowest levels of the year. From that point, oil prices began a decline to near $60, and the
Dow Jones Industrial Average responded by climbing to its all-time high. The Nasdaq
Composite had a strong second half also, yet is still less than half the level reached during
the market frenzy of 2000 and 2001.
June 2006: Investment Mood Changing
The U. S. economy is strong and growing at an above average pace; unemployment is at the
lowest level in years; new jobs are being added to the economy; corporate earnings are
good; and, the global economy is generally strong. Why, then, has the stock market had
such a bad month?
January 2005: A Look Ahead
The Federal Reserve Board raised short-term interest rates by 1/4 percent on five occasions
in 2004. The Fed will likely continue to raise interest rates several times in 2005, however,
the rate for longer maturities will not move as quickly or as much. Expectations for the
stock market are also discussed.
December 2003: Should the Mutual Fund Problems Matter?
A large number of funds or fund families are under investigation for possible fraud. The
funds are accused of illegal trading schemes, estimated to have cost investors as much as
10% of their investments.
Contact Us for Copies
previous Commentaries and be added to our mailing list
for future publications.
Previous editions included:
January 2009: A Look Ahead to 2009
In 2008 the stock markets fell by percentages not seen since the 1930’s. The S&P 500
dropped 38.5%. According to the research firm, Morningstar, of the 4,934 US stock
mutual funds with more than $100 million in assets, none saw gains in 2008. As we look to
2009, we are cautiously optimistic that markets will improve, but there are major issues to
consider.
October 2008: What the World Needs Now
The financial markets are in crisis. Subprime mortgages, financial speculators, Wall
Street greed, Congress, fraud, and others have all contributed to the current crisis. The
presidential election campaign, politicians seeking advantage, and the 24-hour news
reporting makes one feel helpless and hopeless.
January 2008: Recession or Not?
Economic indicators may not have reached the level to satisfy the economists’ technical
definition of recession, but, a housing market collapse, a credit market in turmoil, higher
energy costs, higher unemployment and slowing economic growth seem like recession to
us. At the very least, we are in a “recession-like” economy.
November 2007: What Goes Down, Goes Up, Down and ?
The market’s strong growth of 2006 continued as 2007 opened. Then, the stock indices
fell suddenly and sharply in March; rose to record highs in early summer; fell sharply in
August; up, again in the early fall near the highs of summer, and, then came November.
Between October 31 and November 9, the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 887 points, or
6.4%, with the Nasdaq losing 8.0% in value.
January 2007: Strong Finish for Stock Markets in 2006
Last summer, the price of crude oil reached $75 a barrel and the stock markets fell to their
lowest levels of the year. From that point, oil prices began a decline to near $60, and the
Dow Jones Industrial Average responded by climbing to its all-time high. The Nasdaq
Composite had a strong second half also, yet is still less than half the level reached during
the market frenzy of 2000 and 2001.
June 2006: Investment Mood Changing
The U. S. economy is strong and growing at an above average pace; unemployment is at the
lowest level in years; new jobs are being added to the economy; corporate earnings are
good; and, the global economy is generally strong. Why, then, has the stock market had
such a bad month?
January 2005: A Look Ahead
The Federal Reserve Board raised short-term interest rates by 1/4 percent on five occasions
in 2004. The Fed will likely continue to raise interest rates several times in 2005, however,
the rate for longer maturities will not move as quickly or as much. Expectations for the
stock market are also discussed.
December 2003: Should the Mutual Fund Problems Matter?
A large number of funds or fund families are under investigation for possible fraud. The
funds are accused of illegal trading schemes, estimated to have cost investors as much as
10% of their investments.
Contact Us for Copies
